Much depends on how the liquidity situation evolves over the coming months, with greater clarity expected from the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 7.
It's always been a struggle for economists and statisticians to forecast India's gross domestic product (GDP) correctly, and say where the economy is headed before the official numbers come out. If estimating the GDP is tough, forecasting it in real time is complicated. It involves looking at tens of indicators, such as industrial production, electricity consumption and exports, to arrive at a number.
Referring to the proposed new monetary policy framework, it said in the weeks ahead, government and RBI will work towards it.
HDFC and HDFC Bank's merger - touted as India's biggest-ever corporate merger - pumped up shares of the two entities on the bourses. Shares of Housing Finance Development Corporation (HDFC) skyrocketed 9 per cent while those of HDFC Bank zoomed 10 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSESensex and the Nifty50 indices settled 2.2 per cent higher on Monday.
RBI on Monday conducted an unprecedented level of liquidity infusion to the tune of Rs 3.3 lakh crore, in which banks bid for as much as Rs 4.5 lakh crore. The central bank said it would conduct a liquidity infusion auction of Rs 1 lakh crore on Tuesday as well, to help banks tide over the liquidity crisis.
A special Central Bureau of Investigation court in Mumbai has convicted four former bank officials in one of the multi-crore securities scam cases and sentenced them to three years imprisonment, 25 years after the scam involving 'Big Bull' Harshad Mehta came to the fore.
The 30-share Sensex closed at 19,230 mark up 283 points whereas the 50-share Nifty ended higher by 87 points at 5,699 levels.
M&M, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and Hero Moto and Maruti Suzuki from Auto sector surged between 1-4%.
Concerned over inflationary pressures in the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is bringing down surplus liquidity in the system rapidly. It has fallen to pre-Covid levels and almost 2 per cent of banks' net demand and time liabilities (NDTL). NDTL shows the difference between the sum of demand and time liabilities (deposits) of a bank (with the public or the other bank) and the deposits in the form of assets held by the other bank.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
RBI has, since January, cut its policy rate four times.
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Snapping a two-day fall, the rupee opened strong at 59.49 a dollar from the previous close of 59.76 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market and then touched a low of 59.59.
SBI Research has projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2022-23, an upward revision of 20 basis points from its earlier estimate. As per official data, the economy grew by 8.7 per cent in FY22, net adding Rs 11.8 lakh crore in the year to Rs 147 lakh crore, the report said, adding this was however only 1.5 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic year of FY20. "Given the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY23. "This still translates into a real GDP growth of 7.5 per cent for FY23, up by 20 basis points over our previous forecast," SBI chief economist Soumyakanti Ghosh said in a note on Thursday.
Financial services firm AnandRathi analysed the key points of the policy soon after it was announced.
A CRR cut will help banks to reduce lending rates.
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Steps announced by new RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan could attract $10 billion of forex inflows in the next three months and this could be a material near-term positive for the rupee, which has lost 20 per cent since January, the London-based banking and financial services company said.
CreditSights has dialed back on its language on debt levels at richest Indian Gautam Adani's group but has maintained that the group's leverage is elevated. In a new note published after discussions with the group's management, CreditSights, a Fitch group firm, said it "has discovered calculation errors" in its recent debt report on two Adani Group companies but these did not change its investment recommendations. On August 23, CreditSights stated that the Adani group was "deeply over-leveraged" and may "in the worst-case scenario" spiral into a debt trap and possibly a default.
The central bank will auction Rs 220,00 crore (Rs 220 billion) of government cash management bills every Monday, it said in a statement, without specifying for how many weeks the sales would last.
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut policy rates by 0.25 per cent and keep the cash reserve ratio unchanged at its policy review next week, on the back of slower-than-expected growth and more encouraging inflation readings, says a report by HSBC.
RBI is scheduled to announce mid-quarter review of monetary policy for 2013-14 on June 17.
In the mid-quarter review on December 18, the Reserve Bank left key policy rates unchanged but said it will hike interest rates if inflation does not subside.
SBI, the country's largest lender, first announced a rate cut of 0.25 per cent in its home loan rates on Thursday, forcing HDFC, the second biggest home loan financier, to respond.
The Reserve Bank on Friday superseded the board of the city-based Abhyudaya Cooperative Bank on concerns emanating from "poor governance" and appointed an administrator to manage the affairs of the lender. In what can be seen as a step that should allay depositors' concerns, the central bank did not put any restrictions or moratorium on deposit withdrawals because of the comfort it gets on the bank's finances, according to people in the know. "(The) action is necessitated due to certain material concerns emanating from poor governance standards observed in the bank.
The headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index -- a composite gauge designed to give a single-figure snapshot of manufacturing business conditions -- stood at 54.5 in December, up from 53.3 in the prior month.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The move may release funds locked in government securities and add to liquidity. With inflation expectations lowered, this should not impact bond sentiment in the short run
Home loans of up to Rs 75 lakh (Rs 7.5 million) would now be available to fresh borrowers at 10.10 per cent against the existing rate of 10.15 per cent, State Bank of India said in a statement.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
The status quo decision came as a breather as only last week the RBI had pulled up banks for not helping it in monetary policy transmission.
NPCIL Chairman and Managing Director SK Jain said the company had cash reserves of over $2.75 billion to fund the equity portion of the projects, which will have a debt-to-equity ratio of 70:30. India is working on raising its nuclear power generation capacity to 60,000 Mw by 2032 against the current 4,120 Mw. Another 3,160 Mw capacity is under construction.
After Chakrabarty's exit there will be two vacancies for deputy governors in the central bank.
The declining inflation and a negative industrial outlook have strengthened the case for RBI.
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The rate cut, the industry chambers argued, could have given a positive signal to the manufacturing sector, which is undergoing difficult times.
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday left the repo rate unchanged at 7.75 per cent, while the cash reserve ratio too is retained at 4 per cent.
Chances of a rate cut in April improve if core inflation continues to ease, growth falling below the projected 7.2% for FY19 and if the global trade slowdown exacerbates.
The agency said the move on liquidity will lead to an ease in the situation.
With the revision, term deposit between 180-210 days less than Rs 1 crore (Rs 10 million) would now earn 7 per cent against existing 6.80 per cent, SBI said in a statement.
Bajaj Finance was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, tanking up to 8 per cent, followed by Hero MotoCorp, IndusInd Bank, Maruti and HCL Tech. Axis Bank, ITC, NTPC and M&M were among the top gainers.
At the heart of Paytm's slide lies the abject failure of its Super App strategy, notes Indrajit Gupta.
Emphasising that revival of growth should be the number one priority of the RBI at this time, industry groups said apprehensions about inflation rearing its head again may prove to be misplaced.
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